Trends in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality in Northeast Brazil

An Ecological Study (2014–2023)

Resumen

Introduction: Cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) represent one of the leading causes of death and disability in Brazil, imposing high social and economic costs, especially in regions with significant healthcare inequalities.

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend and epidemiological profile of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in the Northeast Region of Brazil (2014–2023).

Methods: An epidemiological time-series study with a quantitative approach. Mortality data from SIM/DATASUS and population projections from IBGE were used. Mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated, stratified by state, sex, and age group. Trend analysis was performed using the Prais-Winsten linear regression model to calculate the Annual Percent Change (APC).

Results: 278,696 deaths were recorded during the period. Most occurred in individuals over 70 years old (68.21%) and in males (50.37%). Piauí had the highest average rate (179.53/100k) and Rio Grande do Norte the lowest (106.52/100k). A decreasing trend was observed in the total rate (148.69 in 2014 to 127.64 in 2023), as well as in seven states. Bahia and Sergipe showed stationary trends. There was a significant decline for both sexes (APC: -1.83% males; -2.56% females) and in age groups over 50, while the 40-49 group remained stable.

Conclusion: Although CVD mortality is declining in most of the Northeast, the stability in certain states and the high burden on the elderly highlight regional disparities. Strengthening Primary Care and the neurological emergency network is urgent to mitigate these indicators.

Keywords: Cerebrovascular Disorders; Mortality; Time Series Studies; Epidemiology; Brazil, Northeast.